April 1, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/1/2011)
H-122523 (4/1/2011)
Hi Steve,Interesting editorial, this, as it connects failure to probability.
In the end, we all make up the statistics; I just finished 'The Black Swan' (not about the movie!) by Nassim Taleb.
It is worth to check this out, as it shows a refreshing view on how to look at probability as we like to use the concept in models, versus how probability touches us in the real world.
regards,
Hans
Thanks and I'll check it out. My wife wants to see it, so I have an excuse to rent it.
It's not that you worry about the probability of failure, but assessing that over time, or in a large environment during a relatively short time, failure is inevitable.
In addition to the size of the operation and length of time, other factors like the newness of the technology or the number of moving parts can increase the probability of failure. More generally, people or corporations who lead the pack, those who take more risks, have a higher probability of failure, although the same can compensate for it by having a talent for recovering from failure too.
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho
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