Moving Through Five Years

  • Comments posted to this topic are about the item Moving Through Five Years

  • Steve,

    I fully agree that there will always be IT departments. Some things, however my fall along the wayside. As we go more and more into the cloud data centers will be centralized and most servers will also be centralised like for exchange etc. There will still be people needed to maintain those. I don't know but I anyway don't see that happen to soon. The IT people need to make themselves too value-able to get rid off.

    :-PManie Verster
    Developer
    Johannesburg
    South Africa

    I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me. - Holy Bible
    I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times. - Everett Mckinley Dirkson (Well, I am trying. - Manie Verster)

  • Automation will reduce the size of IT Departments.

    Self driving vehicles will replace truck drivers.
    Amazon has a physical store with no employees, this will replace cashiers.

    It is simply what the future will bring.

    Mike

  • Automation reduces some jobs for sure, maybe lots. however, it's slow. I don't expect many truck drivers to be replaced in the next five years.

  • I have been a business application developer for 28 years. Every year someone expects some innovation to take my job. What ends up happening instead is that IT operations start providing more services and get more customers. The amount of work expands.

    One thing that always happens is this: the technical details that you know today, they will collapse into the stack and your knowledge will become obsolete. Staying on top of technology and repurposing your skills is a must, everyone knows this. I would go further and advise you to get good at understanding client needs and delivering IT value to their problems. Business problem solvers will always be in style and will always have a place in the enterprise.

  • If a role requires a collaborative specialisation then it will probably survive.  If it is a stand-a-lone specialisation then it will eventually be designed out of existence.

    We have to ask ourselves a number of questions: -

    • W
    • hy does an IT department and its subdivisions exist?

    • What would be required in order to eliminate those subdivisions and ultimately department?
    • What are the technical barriers to eliminating those subdivisions?
    • Of those technical barriers which ones are not possible to overcome with technology we have available today?
    • What cultural hurdles exist that need to be overcome to eliminate the subdivisions and ultimately the department?
    • Once you start asking what would be required to achieve something then you have already subconciously moved beyond the "it is not possible" stage.  I have to say that I'm finding the answers scary because I am ultimately designing myself out of existence.

  • Great point David, a comment from my blog--
    5. Try to eliminate your own job
    I actively try to eliminate every job I have. I identify all inputs, outputs, and processes. I determine their use and value. I try to streamline, eliminate waste and duplication, improve efficiencies, and combine processes. I do my level best to eliminate what I do. Everytime I do this, what happens is that, instead of getting rid of my job, people start giving me more work. At the same time, I gain a reputation as a producer, problem solver, and contributor to business success.

  • ... there was a prediction that IT departments wouldn't exist in 5 years, meaning in mid 2018. That's a year and a half away. Is that a possibility? ...

    I predict that in five more years (probably the 2nd quarter of 2021) the public will no longer be listening to pundits and predictions. Folks are tired of getting jerked around by activists and marketers trying to sell us on some idea or product.

    "Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho

  • This article lists 13 jobs that were once staples but today no longer exist due to automation. 
    http://ijr.com/2014/09/173651-13-jobs-used-important-longer-exist/

    "Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho

  • Is this really going to be true Steve?  

    Some companies may even eliminate certain jobs, like the Database Administrator, but they don't really eliminate people.

    I had not noticed that databases were self-administering as of yet (maybe I haven't been paying attention).  And if something unexpected happens, who is going to fix it?  They better keep some sharp people around for that.  But maybe the databases will be able to handle 99.9% of the "unexpected" catastrophies.

  • j_e_o - Friday, February 10, 2017 8:21 AM

    Is this really going to be true Steve?  

    Some companies may even eliminate certain jobs, like the Database Administrator, but they don't really eliminate people.

    I had not noticed that databases were self-administering as of yet (maybe I haven't been paying attention).  And if something unexpected happens, who is going to fix it?  They better keep some sharp people around for that.  But maybe the databases will be able to handle 99.9% of the "unexpected" catastrophies.

    When the day finally arrives that corporations no longer need IT people, I'll gladly hop on my pig and fly off into the sunset.

    "Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho

  • Jobs change, but things like the move to the cloud mainly eliminates the gruntwork of keeping the hardware healthy. The biggest place where IT help is needed is building and improving the interface (applications, data, customer service, etc) between the actual business and the cloud. I don't see this disappearing, probably will increase.

    ...

    -- FORTRAN manual for Xerox Computers --

  • When the day finally arrives that corporations no longer need IT people, I'll gladly hop on my pig and fly off into the sunset.

    What concerns me is if too many technically sharp people fly off into the sunset that there will be no one around to deal with "THE EVENT".  This is the catastophic "we-never-thought-something-like-this-could-ever-happen" event that will require a fair number of competent people to deal with.

    One other thing concerns me as well:  if we are not very careful, we may eliminate enough jobs that companies will go out of business because there won't be enough folks around who can afford to buy their "widgets".  The domino effect could really push us into a very dark place economically.  Even if the jobs are eliminated at a slow enough pace, what will people have as a career that will pay well enough to buy the "widgets"?  Everything is connected and unless there are entirely new career paths available to replace those that go the way of the dinosaurs, we may be in for some serious trouble.  I guess the plumbers are safe (I'd like to see them build a robot that can wedge itself under my bathroom sink and uninstall the faucet handle that is mostly obstructed by the sink bowl.  I have to do this soon by the way because the faucet I bought recently had the wrong cartridge installed in the handle and it rotates in the wrong direction and it has to come out to replace the cartridge).

  • j_e_o - Friday, February 10, 2017 8:53 AM

    When the day finally arrives that corporations no longer need IT people, I'll gladly hop on my pig and fly off into the sunset.

    One other thing concerns me as well:  if we are not very careful, we may eliminate enough jobs that companies will go out of business because there won't be enough folks around who can afford to buy their "widgets".  The domino effect could really push us into a very dark place economically.  Even if the jobs are eliminated at a slow enough pace, what will people have as a career that will pay well enough to buy the "widgets"?  Everything is connected and unless there are entirely new career paths available to replace those that go the way of the dinosaurs,...

    It's more a factor of speed of change. In the colonial era of the US, over 90% of labor was in food production... the VAST majority of human work simply to being kept fed. Now it's about 3-5% (which means the real cost of food is also MUCH lower). but that other 90% is not unemployed, they are doing other useful work. In a range of 50 years or so of power farming, there were new labor areas especially in manufacturing, producing items that people could now afford that were either inconceivable or unaffordable in previous eras.

    As long as the transition is not too quick (and there are economic and practical factors which will slow it down), available labor will flow into new areas.

    The term 'service industries' is often used to refer to low wage jobs, but realistically it's much more than that. Service, as in 'providing a service to someone for pay' covers all sorts of things including carpenters, electricians, mechanics, chefs, even lawyers, and doctors. Overseas competition is not a factor here, the value of the job is precisely the personalized labor that's involved.

    ...

    -- FORTRAN manual for Xerox Computers --

  • j_e_o - Friday, February 10, 2017 8:21 AM

    Is this really going to be true Steve?  

    Some companies may even eliminate certain jobs, like the Database Administrator, but they don't really eliminate people.

    I had not noticed that databases were self-administering as of yet (maybe I haven't been paying attention).  And if something unexpected happens, who is going to fix it?  They better keep some sharp people around for that.  But maybe the databases will be able to handle 99.9% of the "unexpected" catastrophies.

    Look at AWS RDS instances.  A lot of what DBAs do just goes away if you are using a managed DB instance.  There is a gap where certain DBA knowledge is making that transition relatively painless.  Specifically we know how to tune a DB and what will and won't work and we apply our experience to the use of the RDS instance.  Once DBAs have gone that background info will be lost so developers will be a bit stumped when trying to find out why a DB app is performing slowly.

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