Steve, we're actually agreeing on all points.
Judging by the price/capacity curve on SSDs over the last 10 years, I think viability for SMBs is probably 2-3 years off as a general replacement for HDDs. I'm saying it could be as early as next year, but that's more a hedge-your-bets kind of statement. After all, December of next year is a year and half off, and that's a full doubling cycling for solid-state circuitry, which means it's in the realm of possibility.
But, even with "available and realistic" in 2-3 years, that means it'll just trickle into systems at that point. It's not a sexy enough technology that it'll get any sort of immediate market percentage. That means real market penetration will pretty much be over the replacement cycle of servers and/or SANs and/or internal HDDs. So, 8-10 years for them to be common enough to matter to DBA careers is pretty real.
I think it might be faster than that, but I wouldn't want to put any real odds on it. I think it'll be at the lower end of those figures (closer to 2 years than 3 for viability and closer to 8 years than 10 for at least semi-ubiquity), but not much tighter than that.
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