Martin Vrieze (2/9/2010)
When these forecasting tools are used to base critical business decisions that impact people's lives and livelihoods, PLEASE be sure and leave this type of work to the experts.
Point of Order: Those who created the credit default swap catastrophe using these types of methods were experts. Having an expert consultant is no substitute to understanding at least the underlying principles of the models you're using. Don't just leave the work to the experts; work with them. If it's important enough to pay someone to do, it's important enough for you to understand it.