I'm not sure you can link the OpenSource movement to the economic downturn directly - though I believe there may be some connection. Microsoft themselves are, to some companies, sealing their own doom not only with Vista, but with Office 2007.

One of our companies specializes in conversions and migrations and though business is going well, we have seen a trend developing where some (and a growing number of) IT decision makers are shunning the entire scope of Office 2007 products. Microsoft has been banking on the backbone of XML to drive the interoperability of their Office products (and more). But as some are more-than-aware, there are many who see XML as bulky, clunky, way too overly complex for what it does, and most of all a great leap backwards in interoperability. Sure, as Microsoft goes, so goes the world, but with almost 30 years in the business I am very surprised at what I am seeing and hearing in the field. There are always complaints about MS, but these are now in many cases, becoming a lot more than mere whining.

We have been surprised that some companies tell us they will not be converting to Office 2007 and will be giving strong consideration to the OpenSource world. One oft-heard reason is Microsoft's dropping of version control in the 2007 suite - its no longer supported. Another complaint is the alteration of formats in Word, Excel and Access files poses simply too much risk to huge bases of software documents and sub-systems. Yet another oft-heard complaint is the great alteration in the interface in Office 2007 - it just presents way too steep a learning curve for companies with thousands of workers used to older versions. There are these and many other valid complaints out there, brewing up a potential storm.

Although it is not yet a torrent, there is a steady drumbeat growing where IT decision makers are considering OpenSource like never before. I hear these comments tied to Microsoft's failure more than any economic reasons. Vista is considered largely doomed, and Office 2007 appears as though it might go the same way to a growing number of large companies unwilling to trust Microsoft's vision anymore.

As a former IBM-er, OpenSource can work but its marketing that I think has always staved that off. That is, MS has the huge marketing power that historically has been the wall to OpenSource. That wall seems now, often crumbling. So, the economy might be playing a role here, but I think more, its Microsoft's vision that has really gone awry in the eyes of a growing number of professionals and companies.