event logs say:

Timeout (60000 milliseconds) waiting for the SQL Server Agent (MSSQLSERVER) service to connect.

For more information, see Help and Support Center at http://go.microsoft.com/fwlink/events.asp.

even though it doesn't attempt to start for 60 seconds (42 by my watch) and SQLAGENT.OUT isn't updated at all when I attempt to start it.

It's definitely not getting past windows. But whatever it is windows is keeping it to itself.