I saw an article earlier this year that talked about how the economic downturn might lead to less software purchases this year. It also mentioned that some software companies might look at stepping up enforcement of their licenses to ensure that their profits didn't tumble.
Companies are getting squeezed and are encouraged to cut costs. At the same time the BSA is promoting it's new cash for snitching program. Want to bet that a few folks that get laid off don't take advantage of this? Plus costs have companies looking at Open Source Software and using the threat of OSS as a negotiating tactic for contacts.
Even at companies that do follow strict license compliance, management is more hesitant to spend money of CALs and upgrades when older versions work well. Microsoft of Today is competing with Microsoft of Yesterday. Except for a few SQL 2008 systems for development and testing, I'll bet that a majority of the SQL 2005 servers are still here 3 to 5 years from now. Why fix something that works?
As a software vendor ourselves, we have to consider the economic situation and it's effect on our clients. Microsoft needs to take this in consideration too.