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The Growth of Storage Expand / Collapse
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Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 7:34 AM
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I would agree with JLK regarding dumb terminals. With the cloud and handheld devices out there, I don't think our home PCs or laptops will see a need to be pushed to those numbers. Do we see major software corporations researching/developing new applications that will require that kind of hardware in our home PCs/laptops? History says Yes, but I'm a skeptic and if I had to pick how long it will take; I would say much longer than 20 years.
Post #1408919
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 7:50 AM


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William Vach (1/18/2013)
I think that before we get there storage/RAM on a laptop will become a moot point. We will have virtual machines in a cloud that we will access with a tablet/phone/desktop like device from wherever we are. The virtual machines will have whatever we need or have contracted for and can grow or shrink based on our usage.
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Post #1408925
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 8:28 AM
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[size="8"][/size]How much can I save in 20TB?

Back in the day - say 1975 - a washing machine sized DEC hard disk managed to store 32MB on its seven platters. Two of these units managed a $130M/year beer wine distributor easily with proper maintenance and data control.

Why would I, a developer, need a 20TB drive... to store anything and everything I'd ever captured, been trapped into capturing (IE pop-ups please), written, received, passively created in spare moments from and to time infinitum.... yes?

If you are in an LOB at Wells Fargo all the shiny huge servers with tons of RAM chips and flash chip laden SSD's can contribute to shaving the bottom line... but otherwise - start clearing out the junk people!
Post #1408941
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 9:10 AM
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Apparently if you could send an iPad2 back to 1997 it would be the 7th most powerful computer on earth.

My first computer was a Commodore Vic20 with 3.5K RAM and a 2Mhz 8 bit chip.

I've got 8GB RAM in my works laptop and some of our devs have 16GB
My previous works machine originally had 2GB RAM upgraded from 1GB. In 4 years our developer workstations have gone from 1/2 GB to 16GB.

It isn't a simple mathematical progression, you can't extrapolate out and say that in 6 years they'll be at 1TB.

The thing that drove the need for increased RAM was the practise of continuous integration. The need to be capable to build and run the entire system and its tests on your local workstation at the same time that you are writing office documents, answering emails and using a browser.

For us we are also moving to video conferencing so webcams are driving the need for more power.

There is only so much a single individual can do so unless we end up with interaction via holodeck I can't see the push for increased workstation capacity increasing indefinitely.

Then there is the renting of processing power in the cloud as has already been mentioned. Will I even need high powered workstations in the future?


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Post #1408964
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 9:52 AM


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aberman 63872 (1/18/2013)
My first computer (apple 2) had 64K of memory.

Hardware specs for mobile devices will mean less and less as move computing moves to the cloud. My 6 year old PC works just fine for running web apps. You can get 1 TB of memory for your laptop and it won't be any faster than my home PC for most things.


Yes and no. Win 7 was much faster, IMHO, than previous versions, which seemed to have kept pace with hardware. I hate Word, because it's slow. Unlike Notepad, EditPlus, Notepad++ and more that snap open.

There's a return to some software that is working better. Also, I can definitely do more on my quad core desktop than on my old laptop and it ran better for some software. Some was just as slow as it was 10 years ago, albeit prettier and with more features.







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Post #1408987
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 9:54 AM


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-=JLK=- (1/18/2013)
I have no idea when we'll get there, but I have no doubt we will, though I truely suspect we will see a return to dumb terminals and huge servers, if not mainframe type servers.

While we are dating ourselves, my first computer in a High School classroom was 16KB memory and a cassette tape drive, afterwards I graduated to a Commadore 64 for my personal computer, and my first work computer still had only HD 3.5 floppy drives.


Not sure, though a little. Cloud services (PaaS, not IaaS), is similar to mainframes, but more scalable and capable, IMHO.







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Post #1408988
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 9:55 AM
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When I first started there were not laptops and no PC's and for that matter no Windows or Microsoft, and DOS was an IBM mainframe OS. The first computer I worked with hands-on was an IBM 360-20 followed by an IBM System 3 Mod 6. The resources of each were very small when compared to today's array of hardware.

When will we see RAM and storage on a laptop hit those levels? Probably within 5 years. Do we need it? Not with what we know now, but what we know and use then may dictate a smaller, better, and faster environment. The hardware of today far exceeds what we thought we would need 10 years back, and looking forward it is the same thing. We cannot imagine it but it is going to happen. We have just really started tapping into the real world of robotics and AI and when we do truly get into those areas and start to put it in the hands of the masses, things will grow.

Years back we did not think that we would ever see robotics so small that they could crawl through and analyze the human bloodstream, and we could only dream of advanced pattern recognition in real-time. But now that those things are happening we take them for granted. It takes new technology and smaller, better. faster to get there. And as we reach out to the frontier again into new areas of the applied science of technology only God and the future know what will be developed, and researched to make those new things happen.

The only reasons we do not have it today is that we are only developing the needs for it today, the nano-technology that generation of hardware is either too expensive or that mass production of it just has not geared up yet, and what it costs to supply that hardware today is beyond what the consumer is willing to pay. But that day will come.

Again I think we will get there, probably within 5 years. Am I a dreamer? I really hope so, I would hate to surrender to become a fossil.

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Post #1408989
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 9:57 AM


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William Vach (1/18/2013)
I think that before we get there storage/RAM on a laptop will become a moot point. We will have virtual machines in a cloud that we will access with a tablet/phone/desktop like device from wherever we are. The virtual machines will have whatever we need or have contracted for and can grow or shrink based on our usage.


Yes and no. The grow/shrink is for scalable applications. However, there are potentially things we do that aren't so scalable and we'd be limited to the size of one VM. Maybe that will change, especially as developers get better writing scalable software.

However we do need some sort of backup system, and the cloud doesn't do it now. We need a way to keep things private, or secure, in a way the cloud doesn't offer.

Lots of cloud services are amazing and I think many will work inside companies, but lots will also require the "cloud" infrastructure to exist inside a company data center. For legal/security/etc purposes. I want the same idea of PaaS, but on my company's servers at some scale.







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Post #1408990
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 10:00 AM
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realistically it isn't going to be anywhere near 20 years. If it was only the technology of memory/storage - I'd put it at about 5 years.

Currently an entry level PC has 4Gb RAM and 2Tb disk - a high end PC will have 16-32 Gb RAM and 4-10Tb disk.

One problem with RAM is that current processors can only support 32Gb RAM so to progress beyond that we need a new processor architecture - i.e. move from 64bit to 128 bit or start working on a *lot* more processor cores- The parallella project is certainly a start in that direction.

As for disk space we could easily be at 1000Tb capacity drives being mainstream in 2-3 years but these specs are more driven by gamer requirements than business and that is focussing more on GPUs at present so I would expect a plateuing of CPU/Memory/Disk over the next year before games start becoming CPU or Memory bound again at wich point I would expect the CPU/Memory requirements to start growin again.

I'll go with 1Tb ram being available 5-7 years, 1000Tb hard drive 3-4 years, 1000Tb SSD or equivalent 5-7 years
Post #1408991
Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 10:01 AM


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nycdotnet (1/18/2013)
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Full HD video is something like 10GB/hr - Let's say in the future we have Quad HD (2160p) 60 FPS 3D movies, that's 160 GB per hour or 320 GB per movie on average (with movies trending longer). Is there any practical purpose to be able to cache six such movies in RAM on a worstation especially considering that network pipes and local storage speeds will also be expanding over time?


Yes.

network pipes expand greatly in some places, not others. The same for bandwidth. I live in a rural county. Most of us have DSL, satellite, something around a 1Mbps downstream speed. There isn't a reason for anyone to invest more. Even cellular isn't great. Huge sections of the country are like this and unless there is some government push/incentive/regulation like with the original copper telephone push to get services expanded, there isn't a profit in doing so. It doesn't have to be wire, but even wireless has limited value.

Companies concentrate on relatively few places to expand. Verizon has limited FIOS. perhaps thinking that wireless is better, but I suspect it will be a long time before large scale 20MBps is available wirelessly to most of the country. I could be wrong, but cable/fiber people laugh at investing in many places where you don't have high densities of people. Even then they minimally invest to get some people high speed, but others with lots of contention.







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