Home Forums Article Discussions Article Discussions by Author Discuss content posted by Mark Wojciechowicz Forecasting with SQL RE: Forecasting with SQL

  • February 9, 2010 at 9:29 am

    #1116210

    sknox (2/9/2010)

    Martin Vrieze (2/9/2010)

    When these forecasting tools are used to base critical business decisions that impact people's lives and livelihoods, PLEASE be sure and leave this type of work to the experts.

    Point of Order: Those who created the credit default swap catastrophe using these types of methods were experts. Having an expert consultant is no substitute to understanding at least the underlying principles of the models you're using. Don't just leave the work to the experts; work with them. If it's important enough to pay someone to do, it's important enough for you to understand it.

    IIRC most of the debacle was the result of ONE FORMULA that EVERYONE USED. Just took it for granted that it worked. But it was flawed. Businesses WANTED to use it though (serious bias) because it gave essentially all buckets of risk an AAA rating.

    Best,
    Kevin G. Boles
    SQL Server Consultant
    SQL MVP 2007-2012
    TheSQLGuru on googles mail service