• starunit (1/10/2017)


    Interesting article indeed.

    As other commentators have noted, statistical results can be manipulated in many ways to fit the desired outcome.

    I'd like to add that the 'input' side of the equation can be massaged and manipulated so as to obfuscate the sometimes blatant manipulations of the output side... please refer to the Podesta email on wikileaks there is this open acknowledgement of systematic 'oversampling'.

    https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/26551

    So, yes, you can add/remove a few variables to influence the results, OR you can just contour the samples and polls to collect the data in such a way that the source data set already reflects the result you want - the direction you wish to lead people.

    I'd never heard of oversampling or this controversy until you mentioned it, but a simple google search suggests this is a ridiculous and debunked conspiracy theory.

    http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/10/25/oversampling-is-used-to-study-small-groups-not-bias-poll-results/

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/oct/25/donald-trump/trump-absurd-claims-podesta-rigged-polls/

    Regardless, your point is absolutely correct and well-taken. There are abundant opportunities to confuse and obfuscate in statistical analysis. And in our everyday communications, clearly. 😉