Revenant (9/7/2011)
cfradenburg (9/7/2011)
majorbloodnock (9/7/2011)[hrWhat is less believable is the automation of contract negotiation; the question of "do I want to do business with this company?" can hinge on all sorts of intangible and subjective criteria which are unmeasurable even if a person can instinctively weight them up in the mix.
But what percentage of the time is the wrong decision made based on those subjective criteria?
About forty percent. Several comprehensive (and expensive) studies agree that if you cannot reduce a decision to a few simple numbers on a spreadsheet and you weigh in subjective criteria, managers get about 60 percent decisions right, no matter how many consulting bucks and effort go into that decision.
That's 10 percent better than to flip a coin.
You surprise me. In fact, I'm somewhat comforted that, averaged out, we get significantly more subjective decisions right than wrong.
Also, given how little I trust some people's judgement, that must mean there are quite a few people who're really pretty good at subjective decision-making to bring the average back up again. 😉
Semper in excretia, suus solum profundum variat