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Posted Wednesday, June 5, 2013 9:46 AM


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I used to think it was inevitable, but now I question whether A-Rod will actually catch Willie Mays

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/9301536/major-league-baseball-suspend-20-players-including-alex-rodriguez-ryan-braun-part-miami-investigation

He's very close, but it's possible he'll never play again.

I assume Jeter will get back this year, and move up to #9 on the all time list, but how much further? Not sure he'll come back and make much progress up the historical lists next year.

And my Rockies are doing OK. Won one last night, 31 on the year. My teammate in the old timers league thinks they won't win 70. I think they could finish at .500







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Post #1460299
Posted Wednesday, June 5, 2013 10:00 AM
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Steve Jones - SSC Editor (6/5/2013)
I used to think it was inevitable, but now I question whether A-Rod will actually catch Willie Mays

http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/9301536/major-league-baseball-suspend-20-players-including-alex-rodriguez-ryan-braun-part-miami-investigation

He's very close, but it's possible he'll never play again.

I assume Jeter will get back this year, and move up to #9 on the all time list, but how much further? Not sure he'll come back and make much progress up the historical lists next year.

And my Rockies are doing OK. Won one last night, 31 on the year. My teammate in the old timers league thinks they won't win 70. I think they could finish at .500


Yes, that is quite the interesting story that came out yesterday. I am curious to see how this all plays out, especially with Braun and A-Rod. Watching guys climb up the all time HR list is interesting too. After watching last night's Cubs-Angels game, I'm convinced that if Pujols played every game against the Cubs, he would easily have over 1,000 homers by the time his career is over. He has hit over 11% of all of his home runs against them. That is amazing.
Post #1460316
Posted Monday, June 17, 2013 1:57 PM
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Derek Jeter, "Mr. Clucth". David Ortiz, "he's a great clutch hitter".

What does "clutch" mean? Is there any evidence of this term manifesting itself in a game?
This is a term that the book Errors and Fouls by: Peter Handrinos discusses. Mr. Handrinos takes the stance that there is no real evidence to backup the use of the term "clutch", that it is a myth that players can be clutch anything. As an example he uses Derek Jeter with his decades playing the game and most likely a first ballot hall of famer, he shreds his stats looking for instances deemed to be clutch and searching for an increase in performance by the player. Now, forgive me for not actually having the numbers he sites as it was a baseball book I picked up in the store while having my car worked on. He mentions batting statistics for situations that are considered clutch. Statistics comparison for innings 1-3 (not clutch), 4-6, 7-9 (clutch), Runners in scoring position, batting statistics in April vs September, playoff statistics, world series statistics, etc. He finds that his stats don't change very much. That no matter what the situation, his average doesn't go up and, statistically, he doesn't play any better. He performs the same as the lead off in the first inning as he does with a 3-2 count, 2 outs, man on third, bottom of the 9th. He renders the same statistics for trivial games in April as he does for late September wild-card runs. He doesn't increase production of base hits in playoffs compared to regular the regular season. And he sites stats that go on and on.

So what does "clutch" mean and does it exist in sports in general, not just baseball? Perhaps "clutch" would be better described as being able to handle mental pressure while performing normally and not necessarily performing at a higher level during, as the book sites from a study, "high leverage situations".

It was an interesting read. It made me ponder things like statistics, steroids, and modern gameplay complaints.
(did you know the average game today lasts 20 minutes more than the average game in the late 1800's! For all those people that say the game is too slow. For as many breaks as we have for commercials, pitching changes, injuries, 7th inning stretch, mound visits, etc. That's not too bad!)


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Post #1464357
Posted Monday, June 17, 2013 3:13 PM


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I knew I'd read something similar. I found this:

Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI

from: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/

I think there is something to it. I've seen plenty of people perform well under pressure and others wilt. My little girl's volleyball team last year played great all year, and when they were pressed in the championship game, they made more mistakes, folder, and got very emotional.

I have to say when I bat as the first batter of the inning, it's much easier and I'm more relaxed than when there are 2 outs, runners on 2nd and third, and I'm up. I faced that yesterday, and while I didn't perform better in either one (grounders in both), I felt more in the former situation.

This is one of those areas that I thought Tim Tebow had something going when he played QB for the Broncos. In his winning streak there were more than a few players that struggled or made mistakes in the last 2 minutes of the game and he didn't. He might not be a great talent, but he plays well under pressure, or he's "clutch".







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Post #1464398
Posted Wednesday, June 19, 2013 8:37 AM
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Yeah, that's the problem I now have with "clutch", it is meaningless. To try and have a formula for defining a clutch score based on probabilities and leverage indices, c'mon. Those are both made up subjective stats as well. It is building a skyscraper on a jello foundation.

A lot of the clutch debate centers around "high leverage" situations. What exactly is that? It's an assumption, to use your experience, that your at-bat with 2 on and 2 out is somehow more meaningful than your 1st inning leadoff at-bat. The problem with that assumption is that there's no way to actually know that one situation is more or less meaningful unless analyzing past events.

They site in that link that 1 in 6 players have an OBP increase by 6 points in clutch situations and 1 in 6 have a decrease of the same amount. Really? 6 thousandths (6 tenths of 1%?) determines a players clutchiness? They pose the question, in a clutch situation would you rather have A-Rod (higher clutch rating) or Jeter (higher overall BA) at the plate?
I think that's what makes a player clutch great, to be able to perform normally in "high leverage" situations. To have the ability to be indifferent about the pressures of the current situation. I'd take Jeter every time.

Tebow... New England's newest tight end.


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Post #1465216
Posted Wednesday, June 19, 2013 8:50 AM
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What is up with Oakland! They are tearing it up, I'm unsure if they're really good or Texas and LAA are really bad. I know pujols was struggling but one man a team does not make.

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Post #1465226
Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 6:13 AM


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calvo (6/19/2013)
Yeah, that's the problem I now have with "clutch", it is meaningless. To try and have a formula for defining a clutch score based on probabilities and leverage indices, c'mon. Those are both made up subjective stats as well. It is building a skyscraper on a jello foundation.

A lot of the clutch debate centers around "high leverage" situations. What exactly is that? It's an assumption, to use your experience, that your at-bat with 2 on and 2 out is somehow more meaningful than your 1st inning leadoff at-bat. The problem with that assumption is that there's no way to actually know that one situation is more or less meaningful unless analyzing past events.

They site in that link that 1 in 6 players have an OBP increase by 6 points in clutch situations and 1 in 6 have a decrease of the same amount. Really? 6 thousandths (6 tenths of 1%?) determines a players clutchiness? They pose the question, in a clutch situation would you rather have A-Rod (higher clutch rating) or Jeter (higher overall BA) at the plate?
I think that's what makes a player clutch great, to be able to perform normally in "high leverage" situations. To have the ability to be indifferent about the pressures of the current situation. I'd take Jeter every time.

Tebow... New England's newest tight end.


Is this that much different from a save? I'd argue that 7th+ inning hits with men on base and being within a run or two of the lead is a clutch situation. I think we could define it, or at least come up with something to use for the stat. right now I'm not sure the authors have done that.







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Post #1465620
Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 6:31 AM
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Sure, providing a solid definition for the term is tough. Until it is proven that runs late in the game are more important than runs early in the game, I'll do my best to avoid using that term.
Oh, yeah, saves. It's unfortunate how trivial stats define a players reputation, value, and ability. A save means you didn't give up the lead when the game ended. A blown save makes no difference if it was a fielding error, inherited runners, or an earned run. Just like simple batting average, it's not a great stat to be the sole determining factor of a players' ability to produce.

I remember playing Major League Baseball on NES. You would choose the best pitcher by snagging the lowest ERA and the best batter by selecting the highest AVG. If only things could be that easy :)


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Post #1465643
Posted Thursday, June 20, 2013 6:41 AM


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I don't love the save definition, because it doesn't include fielding.

However, it's not the runs later are more important, but the situation changes and it is harder to perform in the 8th if you are down 2 and there are 2 on than if you are up 6 and the bases are loaded.







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Post #1465649
Posted Monday, July 8, 2013 7:24 AM
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"Play me or trade me."
I say trade him.


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