September 24, 2016 at 10:45 pm
Comments posted to this topic are about the item The Black Boxes
September 25, 2016 at 5:37 pm
To be honest, I don't trust any black box be it software or hardware or a combination. All can be setup to reveal information you might not want to reveal. In the case of television, telephone, electric service, or even my laptop connection to the world, all can be monitored, they can tell others where I am, how much I'm using of what, what I've clicked on, who I called, etc, etc, and if I'm even a bit late with a payment (or not, they've made mistakes), someone else with control to my access can turn it off in an instant.
Even my bloody truck has GPS in it and bidirectional communications in it. Who has access to that information since I have an antenna sticking out of the top for my not-so-voluntary installation of On-Star? I don't even trust the black box that tells the truck how to run. If it fails, then power brakes, power steering, and the whole shootin' match goes to hell in a 70MPH basket with me in it. I even had a hardware black box, known as split system braking, not work at all when a brake line to one wheel sprung a major leak. Front/rear separation my butt. Thank goodness for being able to downshift and use of the "parking brake". It was a tense moment when I went to stop on a curved exit only to come around the corner and see a log jam of cars only to have the brake pedal go to the floor with no effect.
The big problem is you can't get away from black boxes anymore, especially the electronic kind. Thank goodness the Cylons don't know where Earth is, yet. 😉 Unfortunately, we can't get away from ol' SOL and, if he kicks up a good storm in the right direction, we may yet personally witness "The Day the Earth Stood Still". 😀 The Northern Lights will be really pretty though. :w00t:
--Jeff Moden
Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.
September 26, 2016 at 1:29 am
Its already Happend once Jeff - the "carrington event" (named after the British astronomer who identified it) was a solar EMP that hit the earth in the 19th century - it knocked out the international telegraph system for several days but in the age of coal and iron had little impact otherwise (more frighteningly , similar events may have hit the earth previously but when unrecorded as there wasn't anything electical in use )
September 26, 2016 at 2:02 am
Trust seems to be a bit of a theme today. Given the global emissions scandal, should we trust car manufacturers? My understanding is that it is not just VW who were manipulating the data.
Maybe if it wasn't a black box. Could open source aid this? Perhaps a common framework or an open API?
Reality is though that we use black boxes every day, often without realising it or, at least, thinking about it. I can't remember the last time I questioned the firmware of a lift (that's elevator to some of you peeps).
Gaz
-- Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen...they're everywhere!!!
September 26, 2016 at 5:06 am
It's a good question. I guess the answer has to be "don't trust any black box (or anything) absolutely". We need to be assessing how good the "black box" is all the time. A further complication is that the environment changes. What was a satisfactory algorithm last week may not be so good this week!
To use the example of "autonomous vehicles": actually they are not that new. The idea has been evolving for centuries! Cargo ships are generally short crewed. "Lashing the helm" to allow the helmsman to do something else used to be common practice. Single-handed sailors (Joshua Slocombe, Francis Chichester and many others have all used "self-steering gear"). Automomous trains are common. Using an autopilot on a plane is not new, using it to take-off and land is a little newer. 😉 Algorithms which work in sparse (the open sea) or constrained (railways) environments have an easier time than those which need to function in more chaotic environments (the roads).
Some additional factors which we should consider when judging our black box are:
*) The risk - lashing the helm or using self-steering gear on a yacht is fairly low risk when you are out of sight of land.
*) The consequences - Are you prepared to suffer the consequences of failure? And in particular, survivability - you cannot learn from a failure if you do not survive it!
*) The alternatives - It may be that there are no realistic alternatives.
Tom Gillies LinkedIn Profilewww.DuhallowGreyGeek.com[/url]
September 26, 2016 at 7:11 am
I don't trust black boxes:
Automotive: Look the mess that was Toyota's code. GM's ignition switches debacle. Also I personally had a Ford car that would reset while driving. They couldn't troubleshoot it. There's the Tesla that decapitated it's driver whom assume it could drive safely for him.
Computer: Google has "tuned" their search algorithm to match their executives political and social views. Facebook isn't much better. Microsoft has users losing confidence with Windows 10 missteps and assumptions. Lord knows what the NSA and others can do with Intel's backdoors...
Finance, banking, insurance, pharma, and politics... Black boxes don't work there either. Too easy to corrupt, too hard to correct.
I tend to trust OSS a bit more than commercial software in most case, but it too can be corrupted or misused.
September 26, 2016 at 7:26 am
Comparing goals of creator to consumer? This makes it sound like the creator creates his own goals. From my experience the creator doesn't set the goal of what he is creating. Someone else has done this and assigned that goal to the creator. He is attempting to accomplish what the, we'll call him the, thinker has come up with and put on the creator to create. The thinker may not even have thought of it originally. It may have been the consumer. So the consumer will look at what the creator has created. If it does what he wants, great. If not he complains to the thinker who goes to the creator to fix it, even if it means helping the creator get his mindset in sync with the thinker who only wants to satisfy his consumer.
September 26, 2016 at 10:24 am
Jeff Moden (9/25/2016)
Even my bloody truck has GPS in it and bidirectional communications in it. Who has access to that information since I have an antenna sticking out of the top for my not-so-voluntary installation of On-Star? I don't even trust the black box that tells the truck how to run. If it fails, then power brakes, power steering, and the whole shootin' match goes to hell in a 70MPH basket with me in it. I even had a hardware black box, known as split system braking, not work at all when a brake line to one wheel sprung a major leak. Front/rear separation my butt. Thank goodness for being able to downshift and use of the "parking brake". It was a tense moment when I went to stop on a curved exit only to come around the corner and see a log jam of cars only to have the brake pedal go to the floor with no effect.
As much as I like some car tech, I'd prefer it not be linked to the same network as my radio, and not completely in control. I'd prefer some drive by physical control, not drive by wire.
My truck as the XDrive, moving power from wheel to wheel to adjust to conditions. Seems less stable and makes me less happy than 4WD/AWD.
I especially hate the newer keyless entry that doesn't have a backup. When there's an issue with electronics, I can't open some doors. That seems fundamentally unsafe.
September 26, 2016 at 10:25 am
Gary Varga (9/26/2016)
Trust seems to be a bit of a theme today. Given the global emissions scandal, should we trust car manufacturers? My understanding is that it is not just VW who were manipulating the data.Maybe if it wasn't a black box. Could open source aid this? Perhaps a common framework or an open API?
Reality is though that we use black boxes every day, often without realising it or, at least, thinking about it. I can't remember the last time I questioned the firmware of a lift (that's elevator to some of you peeps).
Not OSS, but transparency. The algorithms need to be disclosed. They can be copyrighted, and transparency can prevent someone using your code, which is what I'd like
September 26, 2016 at 10:25 am
I trust a black box to do the same thing for the same inputs infallibly. Whether what it does is infallible is another matter.
Tesla are trying to capture all the decision points that a driver will make in order to drive a car safely. If you thought trying to get business requirements out of someone was difficult try capturing subliminal decisions!
Auto-pilot facilities are incredibly sophisticated. Military jets fly down Welsh valleys at speeds that a human pilot could not hope to match. One of the hardest things a military pilot has to learn to do is let go and let the machine do the work. There is a world of difference between safety critical systems and your bog standard web site where project managers are trying to descope the working bit of "Hello World" and the devs are managing to inject tech debt into what is left.
September 26, 2016 at 10:26 am
Tom Gillies (9/26/2016)
Some additional factors which we should consider when judging our black box are:*) The risk - lashing the helm or using self-steering gear on a yacht is fairly low risk when you are out of sight of land.
*) The consequences - Are you prepared to suffer the consequences of failure? And in particular, survivability - you cannot learn from a failure if you do not survive it!
*) The alternatives - It may be that there are no realistic alternatives.
And accountability.
September 26, 2016 at 10:28 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (9/26/2016)
...I especially hate the newer keyless entry that doesn't have a backup. When there's an issue with electronics, I can't open some doors. That seems fundamentally unsafe.
Are you sure that there isn't a hidden backup? My wife's keyless car actually has a key hidden in the fob. You have to dismantle the fob but it is there.
Gaz
-- Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen...they're everywhere!!!
September 26, 2016 at 10:30 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (9/26/2016)
Gary Varga (9/26/2016)
Trust seems to be a bit of a theme today. Given the global emissions scandal, should we trust car manufacturers? My understanding is that it is not just VW who were manipulating the data.Maybe if it wasn't a black box. Could open source aid this? Perhaps a common framework or an open API?
Reality is though that we use black boxes every day, often without realising it or, at least, thinking about it. I can't remember the last time I questioned the firmware of a lift (that's elevator to some of you peeps).
Not OSS, but transparency. The algorithms need to be disclosed. They can be copyrighted, and transparency can prevent someone using your code, which is what I'd like
Yes, actually what I had in mind but somehow lacked the words today. And the thoughts.
Gaz
-- Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen...they're everywhere!!!
September 26, 2016 at 10:31 am
David.Poole (9/26/2016)
I trust a black box to do the same thing for the same inputs infallibly. Whether what it does is infallible is another matter.Tesla are trying to capture all the decision points that a driver will make in order to drive a car safely. If you thought trying to get business requirements out of someone was difficult try capturing subliminal decisions!
Auto-pilot facilities are incredibly sophisticated. Military jets fly down Welsh valleys at speeds that a human pilot could not hope to match. One of the hardest things a military pilot has to learn to do is let go and let the machine do the work. There is a world of difference between safety critical systems and your bog standard web site where project managers are trying to descope the working bit of "Hello World" and the devs are managing to inject tech debt into what is left.
It's interesting to think about this from either side. Computers can do things better than people in some places. Certainly traction control and some other systems do a much better job of ensuring the behavior we'd prefer than most humans can. We do need to learn to trust computers for some things, but I think we also need regular (maybe constant) oversight and evaluation. We need to learn when the computer might be making a mistake, which is hard. Especially the more we trust computers to handle some physical tasks.
September 26, 2016 at 10:43 am
Gary Varga (9/26/2016)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (9/26/2016)
...I especially hate the newer keyless entry that doesn't have a backup. When there's an issue with electronics, I can't open some doors. That seems fundamentally unsafe.Are you sure that there isn't a hidden backup? My wife's keyless car actually has a key hidden in the fob. You have to dismantle the fob but it is there.
That only works on the driver's door. At least in multiple models.
On our Prius, if you lose power, you cannot open the rear hatch, at least not without disassembling a panel. Guess where the battery is? Inside the hatch compartment. There are terminals in the front engine compartment, but if you happen to park in a garage, head first, as most people do, you cannot get jumper cables to reach. At least in the Prius, you can open the passenger door without power.
In BMWs, you can open the driver door, but without power, or with a failed actuator, you cannot open the other doors. I cannot believe this is a safe condition for the car.
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