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The Five Year Plan Expand / Collapse
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Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 8:30 AM


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David.Poole (6/13/2013)
In short, IT will still exist in 5 years time, 25% will have gone, 50% will stay the same, 25% will be brand new and unimagined today.


I know that I am being pedantic but surely one 25% is replacing the other so that totals to 75%.

I get your point though and totally agree.


Gaz

-- Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen...they're everywhere!!!
Post #1463119
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 8:34 AM
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New technology does not mean the old technology is going away. Technology has a purpose, and only goes away when its utility goes away.

I read somewhere that there are more horses in the US now than there were a hundred years ago, so the automobile never quite eliminated horses.

Even punched cards are still in use in some applications, and many file formats standards are still in use that were based on punched cards, with the 80 column format still alive in terminals and the default column width for the Windows command shell.

Nine track reel to reel tapes did finally go away, but production did not end until 2001 and the last drive was shipped in 2003. However, newer forms of tapes and drives are still widely used for backups.

I have a friend with a small non-technology business, and he has two employees out of twenty who are dedicated to IT. He didn’t plan to have an IT department that was 10% of his workforce, but it happened and he feels he needs them.

So the death of IT departments may not be as imminent at the predictions. They will disappear only when they no longer have any value.




Post #1463126
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 8:52 AM


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I would have to agree with many of the comments here, particularly Michael Valentine Jones', as decades on and I still get involved in creating enterprise systems from department cobbled ones e.g. their use of Excel, Access or even far more professional attempts.

In the end, if a system is mission critical to a company or nearly that important then the nonfunctional aspects that the IT department brings (redundancy, disaster recovery, etc.) are essential and something that departments rarely implement to that satisfaction of the board.


Gaz

-- Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen...they're everywhere!!!
Post #1463138
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 9:37 AM
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The IT helpdesk will go away about the time that the sun goes nova.
Post #1463161
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 9:40 AM
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I think the author is a better salesperson and self-promoter than a prognosticator. For one, IT departments are organizational constructs no matter the current technology they employ and process is central to an efficient IT operation, especially the bigger ones. This is simple puffery.
Post #1463164
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 9:44 AM


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David.Poole (6/13/2013)
Anyone starting today would be shocked by what their predecessors had to to to fight with the early versions of MFC. The sheer amount of code that was necessary to produce a simple Windows form was shocking. Today its drag and drop, set a few properties and fill in the bit that actually delivers value to the business. Back then it was work out how to get windows to resize and redraw correctly, controls to respond to events.


And I have lost count how many times I've had to essentially rebuild an Access DB for some department that went ahead and used the form wizards and macros to build their database. They only came to IT when it started so acting up and slowing down.

Then you find there is no normalization and the auto-generated code is just a huge waste of time.




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Post #1463168
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 10:10 AM
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Jim P. (6/13/2013)
David.Poole (6/13/2013)
Anyone starting today would be shocked by what their predecessors had to to to fight with the early versions of MFC. The sheer amount of code that was necessary to produce a simple Windows form was shocking. Today its drag and drop, set a few properties and fill in the bit that actually delivers value to the business. Back then it was work out how to get windows to resize and redraw correctly, controls to respond to events.


And I have lost count how many times I've had to essentially rebuild an Access DB for some department that went ahead and used the form wizards and macros to build their database. They only came to IT when it started so acting up and slowing down.

Then you find there is no normalization and the auto-generated code is just a huge waste of time.


But the answer should not be to take away the ability of the Business to create its own technical solutions (prevent them from creating MS Access databases) but rather to prevent them from creating mission critical solutions under the radar with no long-term plan to move them "into the fold".

I think the point of this Editorial and the article from Infoworld is that the Business needs to get things done and sometimes their need for a solution does not fit into the traditional IT solution process. It realizes that each need fits on a continuum from "Slow but Sure" for IT to "Seat of the Pants" for non-IT.

Sometimes it needs to be done NOW (create this report for the customer by tomorrow or lose the contract) and the scope and risk are such that a quick solution in MS Access is a good fit...for now.

I don't think traditional IT will completely go away but the companies that do not embrace the issue of Shadow IT may find themselves out of business.
Post #1463193
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 11:40 AM


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djackson 22568 (6/13/2013)
We need to remember that these people get paid to make predictions, not to be right. Maybe one day the C-Suites of the world will recognize that these predictions are being made by idiots.

Other predictions made in my life that were just as bad, if not worse:

We will run out of oil by 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Code generation tools will replace programmers by 1990 2000 2010 2020
Amnesty will end illegal immigration
Teaching (abstinence/sex ed) will put an end to teenage pregnancy
Hope and change
I will be rich by age 25

OK, the last one is true, I did meet and marry my better half, and she makes me feel rich!


Don't forget the ever popular Social Security will run out of cash by 1975 1976 1977 1978and every year since
Post #1463228
Posted Thursday, June 13, 2013 11:55 AM
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Gary Varga (6/13/2013)
David.Poole (6/13/2013)
In short, IT will still exist in 5 years time, 25% will have gone, 50% will stay the same, 25% will be brand new and unimagined today.


I know that I am being pedantic but surely one 25% is replacing the other so that totals to 75%.

I get your point though and totally agree.


Some of us will be retired/downsized or pursuing other opportunities


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Post #1463237
Posted Friday, June 14, 2013 2:06 AM


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scott mcnitt (6/13/2013)
Jim P. (6/13/2013)
David.Poole (6/13/2013)
Anyone starting today would be shocked by what their predecessors had to to to fight with the early versions of MFC. The sheer amount of code that was necessary to produce a simple Windows form was shocking. Today its drag and drop, set a few properties and fill in the bit that actually delivers value to the business. Back then it was work out how to get windows to resize and redraw correctly, controls to respond to events.


And I have lost count how many times I've had to essentially rebuild an Access DB for some department that went ahead and used the form wizards and macros to build their database. They only came to IT when it started so acting up and slowing down.

Then you find there is no normalization and the auto-generated code is just a huge waste of time.


But the answer should not be to take away the ability of the Business to create its own technical solutions (prevent them from creating MS Access databases) but rather to prevent them from creating mission critical solutions under the radar with no long-term plan to move them "into the fold".

I think the point of this Editorial and the article from Infoworld is that the Business needs to get things done and sometimes their need for a solution does not fit into the traditional IT solution process. It realizes that each need fits on a continuum from "Slow but Sure" for IT to "Seat of the Pants" for non-IT.

Sometimes it needs to be done NOW (create this report for the customer by tomorrow or lose the contract) and the scope and risk are such that a quick solution in MS Access is a good fit...for now.

I don't think traditional IT will completely go away but the companies that do not embrace the issue of Shadow IT may find themselves out of business.


Departments developing their own poor (technically) but useful (business-wise) solutions is the ultimate in agility and prototyping. I just wish that they would recognise to call in their IT departments when it starts to become a problem as opposed to waiting until it no longer is viable and need the replacement from the IT department immediately.


Gaz

-- Stop your grinnin' and drop your linen...they're everywhere!!!
Post #1463414
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