Hard Data v Gut Feel

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Hard Data v Gut Feel

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Steve Jones - SSC Editor

Posted Monday, July 09, 2012 9:53 PM

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Comments posted to this topic are about the item Hard Data v Gut Feel

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Post #1327245

IceDread

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 12:26 AM

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Your touching on something interesting there. I partly compare my ways and methods to those of scientists other people in different roles like a salesman or boss often act more like an artist. While we all can have visions, those that comes from science often has a real base to be built upon with facts supporting it.

Post #1327276

RedLlewy

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 1:00 AM

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Good article. Something I read once that has stuck with me is "the plural of anecdote is not data" - I find myself reminding myself of that quite regularly (see signature line!)

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Post #1327293

call.copse

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 4:22 AM

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I will avoid getting into anything partisan here, but it would be really nice to have some politicians that are prepared to use evidence based policy, as opposed to the current system where the policy is decided by lobbying and generally corrupt and opaque means, and then 'evidence' gathered to support that policy.

I know, I'm a hopeless dreamer.

Post #1327403

Tobar

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 5:26 AM

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call.copse (7/10/2012)

... it would be really nice to have some politicians that are prepared to use evidence based policy, as opposed to ... where the policy is decided by lobbying ....

The evidence is the amount of money they get w00t

"Figures don't lie, Liars figure" is an old saying, but in truth figures do lie. Sample enough data and you can find data to support about anything. I don't think the debate should be between "gut feel" and data. I think it should be about ethical decisions. I think the focus should be on being truthful, not truthful in what I want you to know, but truthful in what is known.

Did somebody mention something about dreaming. Whistling

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Post #1327440

thadeushuck

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 6:46 AM

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Gut Feel is a baby boomer approach. The old "establishment" managers and politicians just need to retire...:)

Post #1327499

GSquared

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 6:47 AM

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Data analysis is its own science, with its own complexities, and very, very few people are educated and trained in it, and most of those are in the Intelligence field. Stats is just a very small piece of it.

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Post #1327500

jay-h

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 7:11 AM

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This is not all that simple. In well travelled areas, where data is complete and understood, data should be a priority.

But data is often incomplete, often wrong. Excessive reliance on data can also tend to keep one on the tried and true and missing the chance at true innovation. You can extrapolate on the past for only so long (RIM) but a really good excutive must be willing to take a risk and throw in a wild card. The famous Pontiac GTO (not the 200* version, you younger guys) was a classic example of breaking all the rules (including company directives) and it changed the automotive landscape. In fact marketing success has often been crippled by people who went by test group data ('new Coke' anyone?) not realizing that merely the fact of organizing a test group distorts the results.

...

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Post #1327516

Tobar

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 8:36 AM

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thadeushuck (7/10/2012)

Gut Feel is a baby boomer approach. The old "establishment" managers and politicians just need to retire...:)

I see the :), but this thinking by "every" younger generation causes them/us to repeat mistakes made by the older generation. Technology just allows us to do it quicker. Tongue

The trick is to see the bad old and the bad new before you use it and make a different choice.

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Post #1327615

GSquared

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2012 8:52 AM

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thadeushuck (7/10/2012)

Gut Feel is a baby boomer approach. The old "establishment" managers and politicians just need to retire...:)

I'll assume by the smiley at the end that this was meant sarcastically/facetiously.

I'm Gen-X, and plenty of my generation works almost exclusively on "gut instinct". Same for boomers. Same for Gen-Y, millennials, and "greatest generation". It's a human trait.

But don't mistake "gut instinct" for "not based on data". It may not be based on data from a computer system, but it's based on data as analyzed by instincts built over billions of years, and on knowledge based on a lifetime of experience, education, etc. (The "lifetime" in question may be longer for some than for others, is the primary difference between generations here.) In other words, it can be just as GIGO as data from a computer system, it's just the imput and output methods for the garbage that are different, but it's still data, and still being analyzed by very complex algorithms.

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