If I have to paint an 8ft x 16ft wall then I can tell you with a fair degree of accuracy how long it will take having painted several such walls in my life.
I've rarely had development projects with much similarity between each other so the estimates are SWAG estimates. Speculative Wild *** Guess.
I've found that IT tends to be to timid in managing its own affairs which leads the business to force decisions on IT that it doesn't have the expertise to do so. How many times have you heard the phrase "we are waiting for a decision"?
The approach I try and take is as follows:-
You would be amazed how often this works. Of course you have to accept responsibility for the results but if you are the subject matter expert perhaps you should!